Great Expectations

On the day that Apple announced the iPhone, my eleven-year-old son decided that he wanted one. Since then he’s done chores above-and-beyond the call of duty in order to earn $500 to buy one. Fast forward to last week when this news appeared in the business press:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty reiterated her buy rating on Apple Inc. shares (AAPL :87.06, +2.45, +2.9% ), saying she believed the market is underestimating the likely success of the iPhone. She raised her 2007 iPhone sales forecast by 33% to 8 million units from 6 million, following a survey of 2,500 U.S. consumers. Huberty also believes Apple’s ability to leverage strong iPhone demand is being underestimated. “While we see positive leverage drivers across Apple’s product segment, the iPhone alone increases scale (better pricing from suppliers), strengthens retail store leverage (increased velocity on fixed-cost base) and takes advantage of lower NAND [memory] pricing in the market,” Huberty said in a research note.

(She is forecasting eight million units in six months. As a data point, Motorola shipped fifty million RAZRs in the first twenty-four months. You can currently buy a RAZR for $30 after rebate with a two-year contract.)

Of all people, I support unabashed exuberance for Apple products, and our family will evidently buy at least one iPhone, but I don’t understand this kind of coverage three months before the product ships. Clearly it’s a cool phone, and as with many Apple products, you have to ask, “Why didn’t any other company do something like this before?” Still, just off the top of my head, I have a few questions about the iPhone:

1. What’s battery life with Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and iTunes running on a big color screen? The battery life of my Motorola Q sucks, and I don’t have Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, or music running. Based on Apple’s record when it comes to battery life of laptops, this is at the very least an “open issue.”

2. Will people tolerate Cingular’s Edge network? I switched from Cingular to Verizon to get EVDO. Edge is supposed to be three to fours times slower than EVDO. The knock on EVDO is that it has much less coverage, but I’ve seldom had coverage problems. Maybe only people like me who have used EVDO will ever realize that Edge is so much slower...

3. Will a phone without a hardware keypad work in the real world? I mean a world where you’re driving while trying to dial numbers as well as access and delete voicemail (unless you’re a SpinVox user). Can a person dial an eleven-digit number without looking at the touchscreen at sixty mph?

4. Is there voice navigation? This will help the keypad issue, but I haven’t seen anything that says that there will be. If you can do this on a Windows Mobile smartphone, I’d be astounded if you can’t on an iPhone. But I’ve been astounded before.

5. What’s Trixie and Tiffany going to do when they send 1,500 text messages a month without a keypad? Which is to say, will forefingers be the new thumbs? Or, will teenagers sprout much longer thumbnails?

6. Will people pay $500-600 for the convergence of phone, Internet device, and music player? And this doesn’t even count the $100 or so contract-termination fee since carriers treat current customers worse than new ones. Perhaps we should look at the iPhone as an Internet tablet or a PSP for old people—if you didn’t have to buy a service contract. (Will an iPhone run without a SIM card in it?) Maybe Apple could remove the phone from iPhone and make it a high-end iPod.

7. How will the sealed battery work? With most phones, you can replace a battery if it goes bad. What happens when this happens with the iPhone? (With my Motorola Q, I was able to buy a larger battery so that battery life went from horrible to merely dismal.) iPods have sealed batteries too, but it’s one thing to be unable to listen to music; it’s quite another to be unable to make or take an important call.

8. What’s the impact of a closed system where developers cannot create software for a phone? Imagine, for example, if you could only use iLife and iWork on your Macintosh. Is that what using the iPhone will be like? What about VPN? What about synching with an Exchange server? This is a consumer phone, but consumers do have corporate jobs.

There may be great answers for all of these questions. (Meanwhile, my son has amassed $400 of the $500 that he needs.) If not answers, there will be great reality distortion. If not great reality distortion, Apple will fix shortcomings in future iterations. However, it’s a tad bit early to declare this the greatest phone in the history of mankind—though many of us are hoping it is. We should at least wait until the phone reaches huberty.

---

Comments

[SEO Beratung]

Thank You for another very interesting article. It’s really good written and I fully agree with You on main issue, btw. I must say that I really enjoyed reading all of Your posts.

[Rugs]

Great comments there, guy. Especially about the battery. I didn't think about that! Truth be told, though, my 3 year old iPod is working just fine with the battery – no problems. Also, I don't think I've had many phones with serious battery issues. Having worked at a laptop-repair shop for a few years, I can definitely say that laptops are often a problem (on ALL brands, and Apple is probably one of the better ones) but cell phone batteries seem to have improved since the cell-phone-brick-size days.
I also don't think SMSing is a REAL problem, it's only that some people need to get used to a new system. I had an HP iPaq for a few years... along with the silly Microsoft software... and eventually got used to using the on screen keyboard (and the iPhone is far better with it's set up.) Granted, I won't SMS at 60mph!!

[Leoni Bellagio]

Well Done blog, I appreciate your knowledge about ipos and mobile. but now a days the usage of mobile becomes common all over the world.

Leoni Online Art Gallery

[open]

The cost and battery life issues are things that smartphone users have come to deal with already. It's the lack of keyboard that is the big drawback. If people don't think that texting isn't important to the "target customer" then they're crazy. I've texted on a device with no keyboard and it's no fun and multitouch isn't going to help. At a minimum, Apple needs to get off of the Cingular exclusive, have a 3G plan, and integrate GPS to go with that pretty screen. I need a real reason to trade a keyboard for extra screen and the iPhone isn't delivering it (yet).

I do see battery life being a big problem. People act like it's not going to be, because the new iPods are better. iPods are NOT left on nearly as much as a phone, so your comparison of apple's work with the ipod really doesn't apply here. How well do you think your iPod would work if you used it ALL the time. Even one without a hard drive and that was flashed based.

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[kristine]

I love the speculation that revolves around this iPhone. I guess it follows that this is Apple trying to combine everything you could possibly need (ie. "your life") into one ultra-slim, tiny, little gadget. Thing is, hasn't this been done already? - well, minus the touch-screen (e.g. dopod, blackberry).
Found this little clip while searching iPhone stuff - it's like a little clip which I thought mimicks "us" and this new "revolutionary" toy. It just made me think...so no one be offended please :) It is all very interesting after all.

[Famous Quotes]

What's going to happen with IPod if the functions of the ipod are included in the iphone ?

You can learn a lot from Quotes from Apple people and other Industry Leaders. They are sometimes brilliang and inovatives.

[Jon Arnold]

Guy - my God, you get a lot of comments! Lots of good insights here, and I've only just scanned through them. Apple sure knows how to draw attention, and it didn't cost them a cent.

Just wanted to say I really enjoyed your post, and am going to share two things that you and your readers may enjoy on this topic. I think there are a few new twists here, especially if you consider the broader stage that iPhone will be playing on.

First is one of my posts on the iPhone (http://blogs.pulver.com/jarnold/archives/2007/02/apple_got_to_ge.html), and the other is recent coverage in Mercator Capital's newsletter, which is free, btw (http://www.mercatorcapital.com/newsletters/February2007newsletter.html#1).

I also loved the photo you used in this post. I've mentioned to you before that we think alike, and couldn't help but think of similar imagery I used in my post about Cisco's Telepresence, which was launched with similar ground-breaking fanfare (http://blogs.pulver.com/jarnold/archives/2006/12/cisco_teleprese.html).

[Emma]

"Can a person dial an eleven-digit number without looking at the touchscreen at sixty mph?"

No but that's what the voice control in the Mercedes S500 is for!

;o)

Emma

*************

Emma,

So the total price will be $81,500 for both?

:-)

Guy

[Phil Amon]

Just got the new Sony Erricsson P990 - top of the range phone killer. Orange ranted about how amaing this phone would be and how brilliant all the features are and took nearly a year to release it.

Can I just say for the record that its the crappest phone Ive ever owned! It simply does not work. Im on my third (and other friends also on seconds on different networks). Im going back to my old knackered p910 as its faster - more reliable and better battery life. Apples iPhone - if it works and syncs with my laptop I'll get one because SE cant seem to release a reliable phone with more than 2 useable functions.

[David Taylor]

Guy,

Great post.

One thing that seems to have been completely overlooked is the mechanics of actually carrying such a slippery metal object around.

I have two questions:

1. Does the proposed design cater for adding a strap on a loop like most digital cameras do?

2. How is the touch keyboard going to work with a protective case around it?

I fear that the Jobs/Ives need for cool lines is going create an expensive toy that gets dropped and smashed all the time. Of course, that may be a good thing for Apple but ouch!

David

[Michael Locker MD]

Cool.

Michael Locker MD

[Andrew - Dublin, IE]

Guy

Whilst reflecting on this piece, I thought back to a piece you wrote in MacWorld some years ago, where you discussed the emergence of PDAs: you remarked that for a PDA to succeed, it must be a cell phone also : as this was the killer app for a mobile device.

How right you were, and now, don't we find ourselves in heady days indeed!

A.

[Matthias (Germany)]

Well, I was quite surprised to finde such a post on your blog and all those comments on it!

The question here should be: Will Apple change the world by bringing out the iPhone?

My answer is: Certainly not. The iPhone ist Apples' answer to the fact that the world is (already) changing rapidly. Mp3-players without phonefunction will soon be out of the market as all important cellphone producers (nokia, motorola, samsung...) integrate the music- and videoplayerfunction to more and more of their devices.

And those producers are heavily encouraged by the Cingulars, Verizons and Vodafones all over the world as these companies need traffic on their expensive mobile networks...

So Apple is just taking a logic step in order not to fall back in the long run.

To discuss the features of the iPhone before the device is really on the market seems to me quite useless. So let's wait for your son to buy his iPhone in June (?). Let him share his experience here with us!

(for my person: I live in Germany and use a blackberry pearl as mobile phone - very satisfied and not waiting for the iPhone)

[Igor]

DO NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, TRY TO DIAL A PHONE NUMBER WHILE DRIVING A VEHICLE AT 60 MILES PER HOUR!!!

Apologies for the capitals there. People have a hard time accepting the fact that they are poor drivers. The simple fact of being able to purchase a vehicle somehow translates into the ability to actually drive it safely. Have you driven a car in Boston lately? On top of that they feel entitled to divert the attention required for driving to their phone. Death shall not stand in the way of our ability and our, naturally, god-given right to talk on the phone while driving. It is a bad idea and you should not do it.

Other than that, I share the concerns about the technical aspects of iPhone. As a device I have not seen anything that comes close to its level of awesome, but a fixed provider, questionable battery life and Apple's grip on development is going to be a great potential detriment to its success.

My greatest concern though is for the shelf life of the product. People buy new cell phones faster than they buy new shoes. Apple is going to have to continue to develop the device to keep the favor of a fickle customer base. Telephony is not their core business, I don't think it's that great an idea to be in it for Apple. The margins are murder, the competition is fierce and the public unforgiving. In order to do well Apple is going to have to outside the circle of the faithful and that may be an ugly wake up call.

I wish them good luck, as ever, but in this case I really doubt whether any long-term success is going to materialize. And they are encouraging people to look away from the road when they're calling, because you are SO going to be calling while you're driving, aren't you? And when the inevitable happens and you end up in the scenery, with a damaged care, bumps and bruises to yourself and third parties, or much worse [I certainly hope not], Apple will have to answer for the public's manifest lack of common sense. Somebody will sue. Somebody always does.

[ThePropagandist]

Who says you HAVE to switch to AT&T? All sim-card-based phones are unlockable with the right software (because it's illegal to lock phones to cellular providers in Europe), so I'm just going to stick with my boring old T-Mobile Account and purchase either an unlocked iPhone (or unlock one myself) and use it with my existing T-Mobile service. No need whatever to switch to AT&T Mobile, the mobile phone company so bad that it almost went out of business before selling its network to Cingular and then later swallowing the corporate parent of Cingular and having the decidedly stupid idea to change their name BACK to "AT&T Cellular," the most reviled brand name in the phone business...

As for the $500 "high" cost, what do you think expensive Windows-based "smart" phones cost? And yeah, you can get a RAZR for $50 now with a 2-year committment, but way back when that RAZR was new, it cost $350, so you won't hear ME complain about getting 10x the phone for 33% more.

As for typing and calling while driving, it's a dangerous habit as it is, and likely to become illegal in most states. I never type numbers, incidentally, I use pre-sets... only now I won't have to hammer them into my old RAZR with apple's conversion programs.

re: Battery Life & sealed batteries, well, I have to recharge my RAZR every. single. day. -- but I'm STILL using my original 1st Generation 5GB iPod (real Firewire port & all) and it's still on the original battery. True, I don't use it as often as I use my cell phone, but I don't see battery replacement as some insurmountable issue... I helped my kid sister replace her 1st-gen iPod battery last Christmas and it took no time at all. I, like most, will probably just set the iPhone on its iDock every night and iCharge the damn thing. Average lifespan for the average cellular phone is now 18 months anyway, so by the time that I donate my iPhone to my local crimewatch program in order to get a new iPhone 500G model in 2009, it won't be MY problem anyway.

[jj]

Some _very_ educated quesses. Not working on Apple though.
1. If you use it, you got to charge it every day-
2. Yes, Edge is ok.
3. No, Touchscreen will suck in real use. Although this is a very good try.
4. No, does not work well enough yet.
5. SMS:ing works, but bit slowly. Bluetooth keyboards should be available. In year or two, apple will release model with hinged keyboard. Nokia communicator or sidkick style.
6. Mac fanboys will pay 500-600. Also prizes will drop and new, cheaper models will be there later.
7. Sealed battery wont be a problems. Unless it breaks of course.
8. Closed system will rock. All the s****y java c**p will stay out.

[Team Cellswapper]

6) Early termination fees are as high as $250.

Unless of course your use Cellswapper - http://www.Cellswapper.com - get out of any cell phone contract, without having to pay any early termination fees.

Perhaps Cellswapper is now the unofficial way of getting an iPhone...

[Dmitri Levkovski]

All those problems are exists only in Guy's head. And it sounds like screaming of ex-wife or something like this.
If not worse - that pc-producers & micros...youknowwho
trying to make black PR for small money.
Whom you will ask how really bad is the man?
That's right, his exgirlfriend.
Whom you will ask about company?
Ex-personal, people, who was fired.
This, what I was thinking, when I have read those histerical comments about iPhone.
Not good, Guy.

[Khal]

What the hell are you doing dialing your phone at 60 MPH anyway?

[Mike Cane]

There are other unknowns too:
Some Questions About the Apple iPhone

[jak321]

The Sidekick 1 and 2 (Danger HipTop) had sealed batteries. I've had my SK2 for a few years, with a recharge every night (although every other would do), and have not had any issues. I think the plastics will give out before the battery does. The SK3 has a removable battery and the door is an issue in the design and handling of the device. If done right, so it lasts 3 to 4 years, a sealed battery is much better IMHO. One less seam in the case, one less chunk of plastic to fail. In theory, it also makes the device less expensive to make and less prone to failure due to impact or physical abuse.

That said, Apple doesn't have a great history of providing what most people would consider appropriate battery levels-- both in terms of run-time life (Powerbooks) or operational-life (iPods).

[Al Feldzamen]

What Apple's forthcoming portable wireless phone truly needs to succeed, in view of its obvious disadvantages (high price, limitation to Cingular, small memory for music/video, lack of voice dialing, etc.) is a KILLER APP.

Such an app could well be DICTATION-OCR SOFTWARE (since a microphone is already present, and a stripped down OS X) . . . software that would let a user dictate an outgoing Email, or text that could go into a rudimentary word processor (like TEXTEDIT), and thence to a memory file or, by any one of several means, to a printer if desired.

Then that device, trademark issues permiting, could be renamed the POCKET MAC !

And then that software could well be incorporated into LEOPARD, which would give it the boost needed to stand out as more than a slight improvement over TIGER !

[Driving]

If you're dialling whilst driving you a retard.
1. You would have the number stored in your contacts.
2. I hope you crash

[Brad Hutchings]

The analysts aren't declaring the iPhone the best thing since sliced bread. They are declaring it the thing that will boost AAPL revenues enough to pump the stock to $130 with a P/E of 40. There is a serious crack epidemic going on in analyst circles.

[KenH]

I find it amusing that Apple claims to have chosen Cingular because they are the best when in fact they are in the #1 slot because of an agressive M&A campaign. Having the largest customer base due to the conquest of competitors is a far cry from earning the slot through superior service and equipment. Further, if having the largest customer base is the metric by which technology purchases are to be weighed then why buy a Mac?

I look forward to the release of the iPhone so I can have seamless integration with the address book, iCal, and other iApps, but I will wait until I can choose amongst my preferred providers.

[David Ollech]

"Can a person dial an eleven-digit number without looking at the touchscreen at sixty mph?"

I think the question is: should a person dial an eleven-digit number at sixty mph? I would hope you wouldn't, not on any phone, especially with your eleven-year-old son in the car.

[Manish]

Hi. Does anyone know if we will be able to order the Iphone without the cingular service. I was hoping to buy it in the US and use it in Asia. 2008 asia release is too long a wait.

[John Nguyen]

Great post, I like the devil's avocate approach. But it was certainly unexpected!

I certainly don't think the Iphone is the end all of cellphones like the blue ray dvd is the final portable mass storage circular disc. But the iphone is certainly a step forward.

As far as the sealed battery, I think it was apple's way of saying, "hey, no one is going to cut into our profits by making a crappy oem -style- replacement." I think there's potential to shave additional funds off the market by enclosing a batter into a tight space and not allowing poor competitors with inadequate research/development to create replacement batteries and sell at a fraction of the cost on ebay.

I agree the closed software is iffy. As a much as I love gadgets, if I can't upgrade software or import software, its not my cup of tea. But then again, from a maximizing profits perspective, I'm guessing its a good way to say, "Hey, you're going to buy my software whether you like the price or not because its the only thing available." Its almost like this phone is a monopoly in itself and a great monopoly it should be.

The timing of this phone is impeccible. Kids are complaining about not having wireless headphones for the ipod, logitec made some. The combo is too good to pass up and the price tag only makes it more desirable in the teenage population even though texting might be difficult for the younger kids.

[cb]

Apple is often one generation ahead of where they're promising to be.

This product is better understood as the ipod video + beta phone and PDA. You can bet that the video features and delivery system (apple tv announced at the same time - odd? no market? really? hmmm...) will be perfected by the time it launches.

Phone companies and handset makers have nothing to worry about (yet). However, broadcasters and film studios do.

When the iGPS or whatever is announced next year - then it's iphone time. The phone applications and PDA funcitons will be ironed out. And hopefully the google maps feature will be added to something like a GPS. Until then, this is best understood as an ipod video + phone.

[Harry L]

Everyone I know ( myself included) is unhappy to find out that the actual battery life on ipods is close to half what is advertised. And the advertised life of the Iphone is not enough to last a workday, even for a commodities trader that takes a long lunch break. It seems like the
Iphone and Ipod will remain "must have" fashion items for kids, but I don't expect too many adults to need the Iphone.

[steve]

I'm very worried about how open the unit is in the sense of what programs can I run ... can I run an IM client or a reasonable VoIP client?

I agree about Cingular ... it is awful around here.

best to wait

[Jonathan]

Good points. Especially the one about: "Who would want a Mac that only ran iLife and iWork?" I imagine someone will find a way to get 3rd party software onto the iPhone. Perhaps the "no third party software" thing was a ruse necessary in the begining to placate AT&T? After all, Apple said that about the Intel iMacs when they first came out..."No Windows on our Intel iMacs"...then a few days later someone made a hack to show it was possible, and a few months later out comes Bootcamp, later yet, Parallels. I'm really hoping this is the case with the iPhone because the walled garden approach bit Apple in the butt back in the 80s too. I work for a company that develops phone recording software for windows mobile and we would LOVE to port to the iPhone. So all you code-junkies out there rev your motors, maybe we can change Apple's mind on the "no 3rd party software on the iPhone" issue!

[Hadley Stern]

Guy,

another big question I have concerns the vibrate feature. Does the iPhone have a vibrate mode? I haven't seen it documented anywhere but I can't believe it doesn't.

[Dan Sadler]

Your 12 year old son want an iphone? Of course he does! I did when I was 12, I designed a phone not so dissimilar to the iphone for a GCSE project like 5 years ago now, it was a cross between a touch screen pda and a digital camera and a phone, granted I didn't think of the pinching and stretching for zooming in on pictures, but I was young, and hey having a camera on a phone was unheard of back then.

[BG]

Great questions, #1 and #3 as the most important.

I have heard co-workers complain about the battery life on their Moto Q. I own a Nokia E61, with normal phone usage, Blackberry client and listening to 30-45 minutes of podcasts daily the battery goes for 2+ days. Blackberry 7280 that i used to own had a decent battery life too, but was not good a phone as the nokia. The Microsoft Mobile device i had owned long time back(Audiovox PPC 4100) was very unreliable and needed frequent charging and resetting, i have never felt like trying another MS phone since.

I also like the point about the keyboard, how could apple overlook such a key usage scenario. Speed-dial and shortcut keys are the most often used features on my smartphone. It is not just about dialing while you are driving.

[CARIBBEAN_MAC]

hi folks Guy company is shit with respect to support and customer care has he experience support lately.

Hereis my cry i bought a motorola slvr from tigerdirect.ca and some how the tele heated up i dont know how called motorola about the issue they refused to replace the phone or even repair it.
their reason the phone was not made in canada and the SW on the telephone is european hence the reason

now i know if i buy an ipod in europe and wanted support i know apple canada would repair the ipod

hence the reason why my eyes are on the iphone
GUY Your motorola support and customer care SUCKS BIG TIME and i hope Apple wike you out

[sewdough]

Like all new technology the first couple of versions that come out will have their glitches. Guinea pigs, such as your son, that feel the need to have the first issued, will save the rest of the consumers some money by figuring out the problems and reporting those back. Tell him to keep doing those chores and save that allowance! At $500 a pop, he could retire before he leaves the house ;).

[Creative One]

Wow Gk, you actually got your link posted at Gizmodo.com. I didn't realized talking about iphone would get your link posted here. iPhone is meant for web 2.0. I believe it is heading in the right direction.

"http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/cellphones/
guy-kawasakis-questions-on-the-iphone-241634.php"

[Chris]

Looks like the Mac cool aid drinkers are out in full force today. They're the only group that will resort to personal attacks to defend their favorite brand...ur...religion?

Get a life you cult freaks.

[JM]

Thou shalt not dial numbers on your mobile phone while driving at 60 mph. Please let your son know.

I believe that the iPhone will eventually feature a swappable battery. Too many people have been complaining about that, and Steve is increasingly open to listening to ideas other than his own. Of course, he will still keep the phone APIs open to big developers only, like on the iPod, which is a shame. Personally, I think that he should make the system fully open for development, but allow deployment only after a certification process has been followed. Developers could write apps that work on their own phone, for their own pleasure and for debugging purposes, but they would need the apps to be certified and "signed" by Apple to be able to run on other people's iPhones.

[Tim]

The Epic Fail of the iPhone,

It's amazing a 500 dollar device which only costs 248 to make but yet its price does not include HSDPA(3G). All it supports is EDGE(2.75G) Amazing while yet almost all devices out now support 3G. Wheres the GPS apple? The terrible lack of features. iPods and iPhones are turning into Handbags for women with their extreme prices. But yet all the kids are gonna go get one because they think they are cool but my Toshiba G900 with my Fingerprint scanner, 2 cameras, phone, full keyboard, touchscreen and much more will rip a iPhone to pieces. Anyone who even would think of buying a iPhone should look at the windows and linux alternatives and out and coming out. The stuff shown at the 3G Conference ripped apple's iFail apart. Another thing what about all the accessories you gonna have to buy? Cradle, charger are they all gonna be verified by cingular like verizon and razrs? Buy a device that you can actually customize. The iPhone's locked os we hope will be cracked and linux put on it.

[Jxer]

Guy--

Love your ability to repeatedly show yourself to be a moron and rotten investor but yet continue to act as though you and your opinion matter.

My favorite line from all of the above is when you asked about dialing an eleven digit number. As somebody in another comment has wisely asked, who dials numbers from their cellphones anymore?

The better question is who still dials a "1" then the area code and number on their cell. My answer: probably the same people dailing-up at 9600 bps.

Please go away.

[Xian]

> 4. Is there voice navigation? This will help the keypad issue, but I haven’t seen anything that says that there will be. If you can do this on a Windows Mobile smartphone, I’d be astounded if you can’t on an iPhone. But I’ve been astounded before.

Since iPhone will essentially be running OSX, voice navigation should be a cinch. I too would be astonished if it wasn't integrated from the get-go. Certainly Steve Jobs & Co. in California are keenly-aware of the growing problem of distracted driving caused by cell phone use. VoiceNav will save lives, because there will always be idiots who must make that call.

[sdlvx]

I think everyone neglects the fact that iPods have been notorious for scratching. How do you think this screen is going to look after a few months? On top of that, you have to use your skin? I always thought that alot of smartphones needed a stylus. I might be off here, but if the iPhone doesn't work with anything other than skin, the screen is going to be riddled with fingerprints. It seems like it'd be awfully annoying to see nothing but fingerprints on your screen, specially when the light interferes.

I do see battery life being a big problem. People act like it's not going to be, because the new iPods are better. iPods are NOT left on nearly as much as a phone, so your comparison of apple's work with the ipod really doesn't apply here. How well do you think your iPod would work if you used it ALL the time. Even one without a hard drive and that was flashed based.

So, you have this device that's left on all the time, and when you want it fixed, you have to send it in to apple for them to replace the battery. If I recall, lithium ion batteries are only good for around 500 recharges. Now, if you use this phone everyday, and you have to charge it every day, it will last a year and a half. Not surprising, the iPhone probably only has a one year warantee. So, when you need your new battery, Apple will be there with open arms to "fix" it for you and charge, when it SHOULD be a feature built in.

And, while I'm at it, what open source software did Apple steal, write a pretty GUI for, and close, and then sell for a high price this time? Do they make UNIX that can run on a device like that?

haha

[michael]

"Can a person dial an eleven-digit number without looking at the touchscreen at sixty mph"

I hope not. Anyone stupid enough to drive and dial at 60mph probably deserves to be taken out of the gene-pool.

[Martin Scheffer]

Hi Guy,

1) Apple announces 16 hours of battery life when playing music, 5 when using the web browser or calling. that sounds pretty good (if true), standby is probably way over 24 hours, and who talks for 5 hours on the phone anyway ?

2) that's a USA only problem.

3) aren't phones forbidden in cars ?, who still types phone numbers ?

4) if not that's very easy to add.

6) Apple would be really stupid not to use the iPhone as a basis for the next generation iPod.

8) yes that's too bad !

Martin (friend of Larry the Silver Surfer, we met a few times, a very very very long time ago)

[David]

I agree with most of those things Guy with the excpetion of number 2. Verizon has a number of issues that Cingular doesn't. EVDO is very spotty. I run between Phoenix AZ and Tulsa, OK constantly and there are several dead spots on Verizons network where as Cingular/AT&T works great. Also, Cingular/AT&T seem less like jerks compared to Verizon, who purposely criples phones with bluetooth so that you can't do anything useful with them like, say tranfering pictures to a computer. No they would prefer to have you send them (and pay them) through their "fast" network. No thanks, I'll stay with Cingular/AT&T.

[4rank]

1. Are we still crying over the batteries in the first gen ipods? I think there's been some things learned by Apple since then.

2. I'm on T-mobile and anything is better than T-mobile. Again, stop crying and go get a CDMA phone if you want Verizon

3. Yes it will. And you shouldn't be driving and texting at the same time. And if you are, you should get your driver's license taken away texting at 60mph. If you want to do that, go into an empty field and hit a tree. Nobody wants to risk their lives because you're a solid idiot.

4. Is there holographic video? Can it shoot pheromones to attract women? I think the iPhone should have the ability to cure cancer. The iPhone is meant to focus on certain capabilities...not be the end all of end alls.

5. Trixie and Tiffany will used the phone to call people instead of writing a f-ing novel on their phone.

6. Yes, people will buy it or Apple wouldn't sell it. You're going to buy it too when it comes out you hypocrite.

7. If there's a problem with the battery, you're going to do what everyone does. Get it serviced or DIY. Quit whining.

8. Someone will making something for the iPhone. Just like someone hacks a PSP, just like someone hacks a....blah blah blah.

I love these new negative campaigns that come out on new products before they launch (ala sony). There should be a new term for it.

[Jay]

Not to mention a name, I have a connection with a top employee and someone with VIP at Apple who loves to gossip about what is said in places where the average person doesn't hear. The iPhone is planned to be open for software later. The acutal issue is with Cingular. The network is not secure to the use of OSX in an integrated network with the phone, data, and messaging servers as of yet. This puts into question what someone could do to the phone network given the correct equipment, but basically, until Cingular can protect itself from an open OSX, Apple will not be able to put a developer kit out to build apps for the phone.
I know this sounds silly because Windows Mobile, RIM, and especially Symbian phones are capable of having 3rd party applications, but the iPhone has network integrated features and that is the key to the lack of security thus far. Since there is no timeline on third party software compatibility, I hope that Apple has it all cleared up by the 3g release.

[CR]

Dude, you have more to worry than the iPhone if you don't question what values your son has at 11 to want a $500+ cell phone. At least you're assigning a monetary value to his "chores" so that he can "earn" the money to buy one. Good luck.

[Loweded Wookie]

I hope the lack of physical keyboard will reduce the texting and dialing in cars.

Studies have shown that using a cellphone while driving cars is worse than driving drunk.

In fact just recently a girl was killed when her car went under a truck because she was texting while driving.

Personally I have to hold out for 2nd Gen iPhone because it won't be released down here in New Zealand until 2008. By then it will have 3G which leaves Edge for dead. Why is America so far behind the world in terms of cellular communications?

[James]

>>Removing the Phone functionality and leaving it with a measley 4GB of storace would make it an oversized shuffle.

Actually it would make it more like a PSP.

[aldo]

"Can a person dial an eleven-digit number without looking at the touchscreen at sixty mph?"

Why don't promote reading and make-up application while you're at it.

C'mon!

[James]

>>Touchscreen phones have been tried before (and failed for the most part)

Reallllly? So the tens of millions of us uning Smartphones and PocketPC phones are also failures by extension, or we're just using failed hardware every day to do our jobs?

Too bad the iPhone won't do 1/10th the stuff that this failure of a phone in my hand will do.

[Amish Parashar]

This excellent post reveals some interesting information about product development -- many people starting or running businesses can relate:

-Competition isn't a bad thing...while Apple is clearly ahead of the pack with a convergence phone, it won't be long before Motorola, Samsung, etc deploy theirs. Doing so will force Apple to 1) better articulate the benefits/appeal of their product and 2) create a better iPhone

-Although the iPhone is leading the pack, it certainly isn't the first convergence device - what did Apple do right that many failed at? marketing? buzz? a better product? limited release? all of the above?

thanks for another excellent post Guy...

[Sam]

"What’s Trixie and Tiffany going to do when they send 1,500 text messages a month without a keypad? Which is to say, will forefingers be the new thumbs? Or, will teenagers sprout much longer thumbnails?"

According to David Pogue, you cannot use your nails on the iPhone's touchscreen. It only detects skin contact.

[SFSlim]

Please, please, don't change the (apparent) typo "huberty", as it makes a wonderful neologism. Sort of a combination of "puberty" and "hubris". Which, in the case of the iPhone, are both perfectly applicable.

Of couse, having said that, I'm buying one the picosecond they go on sale, nitpicking and lingering unanswered questions be damned.

***********************

It wasn't a typo, and it wasn't as clever as "hubris" + "puberty." It was simply the last name of the Morgan Stanley analyst: Kathryn Huberty. :-)

Guy

[chimpo]

About your MOTO Q:

Guy, your Moto Q batteries suck because your option to turn the backlight is set to "never". I fixed this problem by charging the phone continuously for 72 hrs, and then go to Start > Settings > More (G) > Power Management (C)... and MAKE SURE that Backlight time out on battery is "15 seconds" or less. Also from time to time keep holding the msg button on bottom left that will turn the backlight off. Hope that solves the battery problem! It did for me! Now it lasts for days in ideal mode.

[Brett Johnson]

"#7 - The sealed battery is a non-issue. Really. I did an informal poll amongs my friends and colleagues, and nobody ever replaced a phone or an iPod battery. (Heck, my first iPod is 4 years old and still works with its original battery). Just because a few people had battery trouble doesn't mean that's going to be the same for everybody."

This long term life of the battery is not the concern. I don't mind buying new batteries for my phone or iPod every few years when the old Li cells are at end-of-life. Guy isn't talking about the need to replace the battery at its end-of-life. He is concerned about the length of a single charge. A cell phone is not much good if the battery runs flat at 3 o'clock in the afternoon, and the charging cradle is back at home (or the office).

With my current phone, I carry a spare battery, so if the battery runs down, I can pop in the spare one in 15 seconds. I am not going to spend 30 minutes at LAX with a thin flat-blade tool, trying to swap in a new iPhone battery. Hell, I would probably get hauled off by airport security if I even tried, and Gitmo doesn't have Cingular coverage. Likewise, I am not going to hunt down an Apple Store or a Cingular outlet, and pay them $20=$150 to replace my iPhone battery, just because I spent too much time at Starbucks reading digg and listening to Dylan this morning.

If the iPhone battery does not hold enough charge to support 24 hours of moderate-to-heavy use between charges, then its usefulness is greatly diminished. If it lasts less than 10 hours, Apple better include 2 charging stations in the package (one for home, one for work).

[BrYYan]

Decent questions, many of which I have already pondered. My ultimate conclusion is that the iPhone is a TOY. If you want to sync with exchange/POP3 servers, or use a smartphone/PDA for business, Windows Mobile is the way to go.

Besides, the first I heard of the iPhone was when it was called a "Wide-screen iPod." Removing the Phone functionality and leaving it with a measley 4GB of storace would make it an oversized shuffle. Maybe Apple should stay out of the cellular market and use this model to house the latest 1.8" hdd from Toshiba. Imagine that... a Wide-screen 100GB iPod with Touch screen :)

[rob enderle]

you have to ask, “Why didn’t any other company do something like this before?”

DUH!!!!
Maybe you should check on the internet.
Not the first.

[craig]

“Why didn’t any other company do something like this before?”

Depends on what you mean by "like this". If you mean the UI then it's because its Apple, though the main screen isn't much different from other devices. If you mean the iPod connector then that's obvious. Otherwise, who says they haven't? Touchscreen phones have been tried before (and failed for the most part) and the iPhone hardware isn't that different from what's been done already. Sure there's multitouch but Apple isn't really doing anything with it except resize images.

The cost and battery life issues are things that smartphone users have come to deal with already. It's the lack of keyboard that is the big drawback. If people don't think that texting isn't important to the "target customer" then they're crazy. I've texted on a device with no keyboard and it's no fun and multitouch isn't going to help. At a minimum, Apple needs to get off of the Cingular exclusive, have a 3G plan, and integrate GPS to go with that pretty screen. I need a real reason to trade a keyboard for extra screen and the iPhone isn't delivering it (yet).

All these drawbacks have been discussed to death. Is it simply because of the author that this list is interesting?

[Joe]

One more thing. The one thing I look forward to the most is a USABLE phone. I've used Treo's and the Q, and I must say, they are CRAP. The worst usability ever. Adding Goodlink to a phone makes its usability and stability worse...but I don't have any other options. I hope the iphone is what I'm looking for.

[Joe]

I agree with some of your comments.

1. Battery life in real world usage remains to be seen. Since no one is walking around with an iphone, that we know of, no REAL people are using it. I think battery life will be bad and will have be addressed in iPhone v2.

2. I've heard that iPhone v2 will support 3G in the next revision.

6. I would pay 600 for iPhone v2.

7. Replaceable battery is a must. I too needed the larger Q battery.

Here is what it would take for the iPhone to be of use to ME:

* It should not lock up and crash like my (Motorola Q +Goodlink) does everyday. I have to reboot my Q at least twice a day with the latest Goodlink software running.

* It must be able to connect to Exchange. Calendar, contacts, and email. Nothing less.

* The battery should endure 24 hours of heavy use (wifi, ipod, bt, 3g, silent ring) at the least. I should be able to turn off battery sucking features when I want to conserve power.

* Since it's Mac OS X underneath, I should be able to open, edit, and print documents.

* It must have IPSEC vpn capability

* It must have a terminal program so that I can SSH to boxes at work. SSH must support public keys.

I do look forward to the REAL web browser of the iPhone. I also look forward to the visual display of voicemail, much like an email inbox. I won't get the iPhone without 3G though, so I will wait for v2. This will give me plenty of time to let my Verizon contract run out.

[Charlotte web developer]

This is one of Apple's behaviors that has always frustrated me (and I've been using Apple computers since before the Mac); this obsession with locking things down, with making things difficult for third-party developers and manufacturers, of forcing you to upgrade to a whole new system when you only want a minor bump in speed and memory.

Not being able to replace the battery is bad, but I guess you could always opt for the insurance from Cingular. Just make sure you keep your cell phone data backed up, cuz once that battery dies, you won't be rescuing anything off the phone.

No third-party software developers? That's simply baffling. They are launching a new phone platform in a market that's already well established, and the competition is already working on their clone versions of the iPhone that will run Windows Mobile. The smartphone market is not the MP3 player market; you need your third party support.

The lack of a keypad is not a biggie to me. I try to avoid using the keypad now. Voice recognition is the way to go.

[kd]

The iphone is a miniature computer that you can make phone calls on. Apple need only to release an sdk and the iphone will quickly be adopted as the software is developed. That's only a business decision. The biggest question I see is with the battery life.

[indyank]

Guy...You say that these were questions out of your head while this one appears 2 days earlier than this post.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/tech/appleiphoneiphone/dontbitethatapp/market/stocks/article/269686

[ironSoap]

@atho: "Driving and using phones? The number one cause of driving accidents today."

Oh? Care to cite a source? Most of what I've seen suggests that only 25% of accidents are caused by cell phone use while 40% are caused by driving while intoxicated. 25% of roughly six million crashes is a lot, to be sure, but hardly the leading cause of accidents and probably more on par with messing around with the radio.

[cw]

>"What Blackberry owners tend to forget is how tedious it was to learn how to type on those crappy tiny keypads"

You are absolutely right. When you first start out with the Blackberry, the typing experience is AWFUL with those chicklet keys. And I'm sure the same is true of most smartphones. And the same is also true of texting on traditional cell phones.

What's interesting is that people have such high standards for the iPhone... which is a good thing. Finally, people are expecting more from your cell phone.

>Guy, tell your son he will probably need to throw $2000 on top of the $500, cause that will be the yearly cost to get an iPhone and a phone plan with data capabilities.

This is probably the weakest argument against the iPhone. From the rumors, it looks like the iPhone will make my plan costs go DOWN from my current BlackBerry bill. So you can't factor in a $900-1200 annual bill without first discounting what you're paying now. Not even to mention the vastly improved experience you're getting with voicemail, web browsing, and texting.

[Norm Potter]

Maybe the reason for the early release of the podphone is explained in this comment on the Cult ofMac blog:
:
http://blog.wired.com/cultofmac/2007/01/ask_an_attorney.html

see this comment below:

Thursday, 11 January 2007 - 6:16 PM

Name: jmbehmke

IAAL - trademark is one of my specialities.

The Cisco iPhone trademark was registered 11/16/1999 (Reg. No. 2293011). In order to keep a trademark registration active, you have to file a Declaration of Use on or before the sixth anniversary of the registration date, in which you state, under penalty of perjury, that you have been using the trademark continuously during that period. The sixth anniversary would have been 11/16/2005.

Cisco did not file the Declaration of Use in the requisite period. However, the USPTO gives you an extra six months grace period, if you pay an extra fee. This grace period would have expired 5/16/2006. Cisco filed a Declaration of Use on 5/4/2006 which kept their registration active. Had they not filed, their registration would have been canceled.

With the Declaration, you are required to file a copy of a label or other packaging showing the trademark in use. Cisco filed a picture of the box for the Linksys iPhone.

Now the Cisco press releases I have seen indicate that Cisco released the iPhone products in December 2006.

Now this is my personal opinion based on the information I have seen so far (your mileage may vary): Cisco may have a problem with its trademark registration because it has not been continuously offering a product under the iPhone trademark since 1999. They knew that Apple was interested in the name (since Apple had approached them and negotiations were ongoing). If Cisco didn't launch a product using the iPhone name, their trademark registration would be canceled and they would have no bargaining chips with Apple. So in order to keep the trademark active, they had to file the Declaration of Use, and start selling a product under that trademark.

It is possible that the Declaration of Use is defective, as there was no continuous use, and the sample that Cisco submitted was for a product not released until 7 months later.

The fact that the Declaration of Use was submitted only days before the deadline expires gives me the impression that they were scrambling to get a product to market, and had to file the Declaration before the product was ready.

Apple's lawyers will have certainly found the same clues that I did, and may believe that Cisco's registration can be cancelled (by proving in federal court that the Declaration of Use contained mistatements of fact - there was no continuous use).

If Apple believes that they can get the registration cancelled, they may not have wanted to sign the agreement Cisco proposed. Without the registration, Cisco and Apple would still have a trademark dispute to resolve, but Cisco will have a harder time proving that it has valid trademark rights.

Norm Potter

[No One]

Common sense says IT managers don't let employees access Exchange mail through personal phones. Talking to our business rep with Cingular, the phone WILL NOT be offered through business channels and can only be purchased by walking into a briack and mortar store, or at the Apple store. The only option is IMAP Mr. K. IMAP sucks on EDGE networks if you've ever tried to make it work on a personal phone with Cingular.

[Ace]

The battery issue for Ipods?????? for $20 you can get a replacement and replace it yourself in 20 mins. If you not handy then take it somewhere and you will have a new fresh battery in minutes. For the same price you can find batteries with 30% more capacity. Hardly a real issue.

Same with the Iphone. Worst case you take it in to Apple or Cingular (ATT) and they pop a new one in for you.

[Mr. Besilly]

You have made an exceptional list of questions for the iPhone launch. I learned the hard way with the iPod that the later versions were better based on user input. Your list is so exceptional that I am now going to wait for the version II release. I was drunk on all the iPhone hype... but I'm sober now. You have spared me an ugly morning after moment. Thanks!

[totoro]

"A touch-screen phone is just not going to work for most people. Not giving up my Blackberry yet! "

What Blackberry owners tend to forget is how tedious it was to learn how to type on those crappy tiny keypads, and Palm users how tedious it was to learn Graffitti, etc...I've seen people type like demons on a standard cell phone keypad, and others plod along on a Microsoft full size computer keyboard. Its all in how you approach it. Dismissing Apple's soft keypad without even trying it first certainly isn't thinking different :p

[Daniel]

Guy, tell your son he will probably need to throw $2000 on top of the $500, cause that will be the yearly cost to get an iPhone and a phone plan with data capabilities.

[gianandrea facchini]

Guy, my feeling is that your analysis may be correct from a tech and rational point of view. but there are a lot of people around buying tech device for completely different reasons:
a) the razrs had several problem in menu, battery life, etc but it was beautiful and cutting edge
b)the ipod was about a closed world and a brand new business model in which you were entitled to pay for music that you may have for free but it was and still is very cool
c) digital cameras are sold by the number of pixels and not for the lens and the zoom and we know than 10 megapixel without good lens and a decent zoom capability is nothing

at the end of the day, most of the market is not made by tech experts or rational buyers.

[SimoneR]

“Why didn’t any other company do something like this before?”

Actually, they did. Have a look at the link below:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LG_KE850

I'm a mac user, I had an iPod (dead due to battery failure but I'll get a new one), still I'm not yet ready to swear I'll buy an iPhone.
I'm especially concerned on your point 1 and, living in Europe, on the lack of a single carrier with a decent flat internet plan for mobiles (at least in Italy).

[PK]

"Will a phone without a hardware keypad work in the real world? I mean a world where you’re driving while trying to dial numbers as well as access and delete voicemail (unless you’re a SpinVox user). Can a person dial an eleven-digit number without looking at the touchscreen at sixty mph?"

Do you do that? Mate, you will def. get pulled over in the UK for it. It's a major crash issue! You write it in quite a cool manner, I hope you do not try it!

*******************

I'm not endorsing doing this. I think that people do dial their cell phones while driving, and it's going to be even harder (and more dangerous) on a phone without a keypad.

Maybe it will be so hard that iPhone users won't do it at all. That would be a good unintended consequence.

Guy

[J B Hill]

First time reading your blog. Some interesting observations on the iPhone. To use an old Apple cliche, I think you need to Think Different on the iPhone. One of the things that irks me about tech analysis is that it seems to have no basis in reality, that is, actual or plausible real world experience. For example, it's one thing for a device to have 'lots of high technology', and another thing for the device itself to qualify as 'good' technology, functioning as a cohesive whole. It's really how the thing's put together. I live in Europe and have been through a good few phones, most of them 'given' to me by my chosen network; I think you're looking at the iPhone all wrong. The only important issue you brought up is the battery issue. As with the iPod (which itself lacked many of the features of its rivals), it was the battery that caused the most public relations problems for Apple.

So, on data rates, I say: Most people avoid using these expensive features anyway and won't know the difference (3G has been a big disappointment in Europe); it won't affect as many people as you imply.

On Bluetooth: most people only use Bluetooth with wireless headsets, and not many people use those - they use the free (wired) one that comes with their device.

On WiFi: I suspect it will turn itself off, conserving power, similar to the way the vaunted video feature that turns itself off when not in use. If you look at the demo, you'll see that music continues to play until interrupted by the phone, but the video feature is rationalised so that video does not continue to play when it can't be seen. So, if you're not doing anything that requires data, it'd be off.

On hard-keyboards: The kind of operation you suggest is illegal in most cities! At least in English ones. And you could lose your licence for using you mobile phone (with a free hand) whilst driving. Apple isn't going to lose sales over this, but I suspect power users will be disgruntled.

On voice-navigation: Another over-hyped technology, the inclusion of which doesn't make a device a 'good' device. I've NEVER seen ANYONE giving voice commands to their phones in public (and I live in Europe!). Apple won't lose sales over this issue.

On the closed system issue: It's really a non-issue, unless you are a power user/business user. Most ordinary people, a la the iPod, just want something that works: no hassles! Apple is not going to lose sales over this issue, and we don't quite know what software options there will be.

On the price: We'll just have to wait and see if people are willing to pay for a device like this.

The real issue is the battery. And I think, given the iPod saga, Apple will have learnt its lesson. Replaceable batteries are over-hyped. Give a me a battery that works in the first place! I'm familiar with people working at one of the busiest Apple Stores in Europe and know that the battery issue is 100% over-hyped. There are issues, but not intractable ones.

[Jose Vazquez]

I really enjoyed the last line "We should at least wait until the phone reaches huberty." good one.

[michaele]

#3,#3,#3!
A touch-screen phone is just not going to work for most people. Not giving up my Blackberry yet! I have a "blackbook" which I love EXCEPT that it is perpetually smudgy (it replaced a trusty old iBook that never looked bad--why can't Apple make stuff that looks good for more than an hour out of the box anymore?)....but if you get an iPhone and actually have to touch it, may I recommend the Rubbermaid microfiber glass/mirror cleaning cloths they have at Target right now? I couldn't find a link but they are in the cleaning aisle and they are light blue--fabulous!!

[Andrew]

"What’s the impact of a closed system where developers cannot create software for a phone?"

From what I gathered they're leaving Java and other APIs off the phone- not a bad thing when you consider the fact that they're replacing it with a full web browser and a decent sized screen.

Current mobile development APIs suck. You can make simple games and some quirky little applications, but the platform constraints and varying version support across devices makes it a painful experience at best.

A full browser backed by webkit on the other hand *shuts eyes real tight and hopes to finally see tabbed browsing on a phone* opens developers to far more functionality than any of the current APIs available. HTML, CSS and JavaScript beat the pants of any of the current mobile APIs for rapid development as well as pure functionality especially since they're backed by servers, webservices and the rest of the Internet.

I'm a developer of mobile phone and web based applications, I was initially a bit bummed when I found out that the platform was closed, but then I thought a little harder about what I really want to do with MY phone and that's not download some horrible little application. I'd rather access a nice Ajax page that can accomplish all of that and much more. To be honest I couldn't come up with one compelling application I would want to write that wasn't somehow relying on the Internet anyway.

In terms of openness of the platform, including a full browser has actually made the platform one of the most inclusive for the majority of developers. Final opinons will have to wait until we actually see the thing, but I'm going to keep an open mind here, it might just turn out to be a much better and more open platform than anyone realises.

[atho]

Dude,
as Jim Morrison said, keep your eyes on the road and your hands upon the wheel. Driving and using phones? The number one cause of driving accidents today. I am sure you can do better than that. It could prevent accidents, especially young drivers.

[Rakesh Agrawal]

Guy, You might consider getting a Wi-Ex zBoost wherever you use your phone the most. Having a stronger signal can make a big difference to battery life. See my review of the zBoost:

http://rake.sh/blog/2007/01/31/zboost-cell-phone-signal-booster/

[surya]

Great post. We're a culture who loves hype, and the easy story. Apple designs a product that everyone and their brother needs that also solves climate change is a very easy story. I say this identical story gets written within 3 months of launch.

[Ema]

Rising revenue estimates based on iPhone, Apple TV, and OSX Leapord:

-iSupply released a research report saying the iPhone could be as much as 50% margins, giving them a lot of room to lower the price
-Apple TV may also be very good margins and will boost their bottom line (Citigroup analyst forecasts $500 million in sales in 2007 and $1 billion in revenue in 2008)
-BofA analyst forecasts that the new version of the software could spur an extra $200 million in revenue

more info: http://emasmarketblog.blogspot.com

[Valeria Maltoni]

You have some solid points here, Guy. And in response to Robert, glad your iPod works fine. Mine is not even 2 years old and the battery is running out on me every single day. I am now approaching a buying decision on a laptop: should I go with Apple? I'm not too happy with the iPod at the moment.

[mostly anonymous]

I never thought I'd see the day when Guy Kawasaki would be a buzzkiller for my Apple product lusts. I guess if you are around long enough, you are bound to see just about anything happen. Good set of questions, though.

On the EDGE vs EVDO, I am hoping the screen size and usability features of the iPhone compensate for the slower data rate. I use EVDO on a Treo and though it is nice for downloading email, using the browser is painful because of poor form and human factors. The other compensation for the data rate will be WiFi connectivity. I wonder if that will really help when I need help.

[Robert 'Groby' Blum]

I was going to reply in an article on my blog, but got too lazy to polish it up. So here some points to consider:

#1 - Yes, battery life is a concern. However, all signs point to an ARM CPU - so at least some concern for batt.life is there. This is clearly a wait&see

#2 - might be an issue, unless you're around WiFi often. I sure hope there's smart transition between the two...

#3 - I certainly *hope* they can't dial while driving. If you do that, you're risking the life of everybody else on the street for your convenience. Stop and pull over.

#4 - voice navigation would indeed be nice. My shoddy RAZR had it to some extent, so let's hope Apple provides that.

#5 - Trixie & Tiffany are not exactly the target group. (And if they are, they'll shorten their nails. Typing with long nails is not fun ;)

#6 - I think that Apple *will* have an iPhone without phone fairly soon. Maybe even in April... Either way, the $500 price tag is not going to scare people away who actually want a phone that's not a useability nightmare. It's typical Apple strategy - get the trend setters first, do a second edition that's better and/or cheaper to get mass appeal. (Remember the iPod?)

#7 - The sealed battery is a non-issue. Really. I did an informal poll amongs my friends and colleagues, and nobody ever replaced a phone or an iPod battery. (Heck, my first iPod is 4 years old and still works with its original battery). Just because a few people had battery trouble doesn't mean that's going to be the same for everybody.

#8 - I think that's the biggest issue they're going to face. The trendsetting group they need to target very much likes customizing their toys. If they completely lock people out, that might backfire. We'll see...

In short - unless you must have it, wait till the first iteration of the iPhone has gone by, and iPhone 2G is out. It's a well-known truism that you should never buy Apple hardware 1.0 (Of course, that won't stop me ;)

[JohnK]

Guy, you nailed in on the head with your point about Verizon vs. Cingular. Cingular's service is about as impressive as their CEO's presentation at MacWorld...Not. (this is my personal opinion)

PS. I understand that you could always go grab one at the Mac store and activate it with T-Mobile - at least they have a cool cycling team... ;)