The Mismatch Problem by Malcolm Gladwell
Check out this great video of Malcolm Gladwell (The Tipping Point) discussing the shortcomings of today's hiring practices. He cites examples of professional sports that conduct "combines" where teams measure the performances of prospects in the hopes of drafting the future stars.
Guess what: this method doesn't work. Jobs--of all types--are more complex, and the desire for certainty increases but is manifested in measuring the wrong things. Do you hire people based on the measuring the wrong variables?